2026 Real Estate Market Analysis — Through July

The 2026 market has strengthened considerably compared with the same period in 2025. More homes are selling, prices are higher, and buyers have significantly less inventory to choose from.

Through July, 1,101 homes sold compared with 965 during the same period last year — an increase of 14.1%. At the same time, average active inventory fell from 323 homes to 244 homes, a decline of approximately 24.5%.

That combination is particularly favorable for sellers: sales volume is up double digits despite buyers having roughly one-quarter fewer homes available to purchase.

Key YTD Trends: January–July

Market Metric	2025	2026	Change
Homes Sold	965	1,101	+14.1%
Avg. Sale Price	$2.199M	$2.409M	+9.5%
Avg. Median Price	$1.739M	$1.826M	+5.0%
Avg. Price/Sq. Ft.	$949	$1,012	+6.6%
Avg. Active Inventory	323	244	-24.5%
New Listings	1,423	1,378	-3.2%
Avg. Months Supply	2.42	1.76	-27.4%
Avg. Days on Market	37	33	-10.0%
Avg. Sale-to-List	101.1%	102.7%	+1.6 pts

The Biggest Story: Inventory

The most important trend is the imbalance between supply and demand.

New listings are down only modestly—about 3%—but active inventory has fallen nearly 25% while the number of completed sales has increased 14%.

That tells us buyers are absorbing available inventory much more quickly.

Average months of supply dropped from approximately 2.42 months to just 1.76 months, a decline of more than 27%. By June and July, the market tightened even further:

June 2026: 1.20 months of inventory
July 2026: 1.17 months of inventory

That’s a very competitive environment, particularly for desirable, well-prepared homes.

Prices Have Responded

The supply shortage isn’t just creating more transactions—it is translating into higher prices.

Average sale price through July increased approximately 9.5%, from $2.20M to $2.41M.

Average price per square foot increased approximately 6.6%, from $949 to $1,012.

Median prices increased approximately 5.0%.

The difference between the median and average increases suggests there may also be greater activity or strength at the higher end of the market, so I wouldn’t characterize the entire market as appreciating 9.5%. The 5–7% increases in median price and PPSF provide a more conservative indication of broad price strength.

July Shows Just How Tight the Market Has Become

The July year-over-year comparison is particularly compelling.

July 2026 vs. July 2025:

Median price: $1.850M vs. $1.678M → +10.3%
Average price: $2.416M vs. $2.258M → +7.0%
Price/sq. ft.: $1,036 vs. $979 → +5.8%
Homes sold: 175 vs. 158 → +10.8%
Active inventory: 204 vs. 341 → -40.2%
Months supply: 1.17 vs. 2.16 → -45.8%
Sale-to-list: 102.7% vs. 99.4%
New listings: 129 vs. 134 → -3.7%

There is one metric that moved against the broader trend: average days on market increased slightly from 35 to 38 days in July. That’s worth acknowledging rather than implying every indicator improved.

The Seller Story

The strongest way to communicate this data to homeowners is:

Buyer demand is increasing at the same time that available inventory is shrinking. Through July, home sales are up 14% while average inventory is down nearly 25%. In July alone, buyers had 40% fewer homes to choose from than they did one year ago.

That is a powerful setup for sellers.

And buyers aren’t simply purchasing more homes—they’re paying more for them. July’s average price per square foot reached $1,036, up nearly 6% from last July, while homes sold for an average of 102.7% of asking price.

What I Would Emphasize in Your Marketing

For consumer-facing pieces, I’d simplify all of this into four statistics:

40% LESS INVENTORY
July 2026 vs. July 2025

11% MORE HOMES SOLD
July 2026 vs. July 2025

6% HIGHER PRICE/SQ. FT.
July 2026 vs. July 2025

102.7% OF ASKING PRICE
Average July 2026 sale

Then the message underneath:

“More buyers. Fewer homes. Higher prices.”

Contact Brian Lewis for all your Marin Real Estate needs!